Turnovers

With last night's performance, VMI is now averaging an astounding 19.8 turnovers per game. This statistic currently ranks third to last in the nation, behind only Louisiana-Lafayette and hapless Savannah State, who was defeated by Louisville 87–26 earlier in the week.

It's not hard to see where they are coming from. QJ is averaging 5 TO/game, Eleby 3.3, Chapman 2.7, and Brown 2.4. The turnover rate for each player was higher than it was last season, a season in which QJ turned it over the most with 2.2 per game. Among those players, only Eleby and Chapman have received significantly more playing time in their sophomore season, so it's clear to say there is a turnover bug that has caught the entire team by storm.

Statistically speaking, the turnover margin might be the difference in the Keydets being 2–4 versus 4–2, or even 5–1. Last season we averaged a mere 10.6 turnovers per game. Using this as a control, if we were currently at that mark this season, we would be, on average, attempting just over nine more shots per game. With a 45.5% field goal percentage, the chances are that we would make just over four of these shots, two of which would be three-pointers. Add it all up and you have ten points every game that you aren't getting. Such a differential would have been enough to win games against Army, and perhaps UNC Wilmington, given that the final seven points of the 110 the Seahawks scored were from the line or easy layups, at which point the team had already given up.

Ten points would have made for a much closer game against West Virginia, and certainly would've given Maryland a scare. This doesn't account for the fatigue and pressure that would be put on opposing teams with a close game, a statistic that is not quantifiable but most certainly in our favor. The turnovers are also negatively effecting our rhythm, which in turn weakens our shooting percentage. Despite the fact that we are averaging 86.3 points/game, our adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is a meager 99.0, good for 173rd in Division I. On the top of that list you will find teams like Duke, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Gonzaga - teams that don't necessarily score many points but do take care of the ball and value each possession.

Valuing every possession is not something to consider when running a loot-and-shoot offense such as Baucom's, but taking care of the ball is always a must. Duggar always reinforced the "shoot before you turn it over" mentality, so what can explain the turnovers? Both this season (so far) and last season, we averaged 70 field goal attempts per game, and we're even taking six more three-pointers on average. But the turnovers are decreasing those figures, so it's safe to say we are playing at a faster pace. It's still a small sample size, but consider that since 2007, we averaged anywhere from 11 to 17 TO/game, the 17 coming only in the first year of the run-and-gun system, when we averaged over 101 PPG and had an adjusted tempo of 90.9 (a number that will most likely never come close to being matched). Even if we were to take out the 36-turnover debacle @ WVU, the team would still be averaging 16.6 TO/game, still six more than last season and far too many.

Obviously, these problems stem from the lack of a true point guard, a problem that has been persistent since Day 1, and one that Duggar could do nothing about. Not only did the players on last year's team have the ball less (being that it was always in Rodney's hands), but they made a living in their natural positions and were thus more comfortable. Nevertheless, QJ is turning the ball over left and right, Eleby is tripping over his own feet, and Weethee is passing to the wrong team. This season is a growing process but right now there seems to be a disconnect at the guard position.