VMI of course has trudged through a down year, and, despite all the troubles, finds themselves on a two-game winning streak and in sole possession of the sixth seed and final first-round bye. Samford, who won five in a row after an 0-8 conference start, lost to The Citadel on an Ashton Moore buzzerbeater (which, if you saw it, was an unbelievable stroke of luck) and fell in a hard-fought game at Chattanooga, losing by seven. Still, the Bulldogs of the West are dangerous, with a home game against Mercer Saturday, followed by the last two on the road at UNCG and VMI.
El Cid at this point isn't really much of a threat. Because we beat them twice, the Bulldogs of the East would have to finish the year at least 3-1 AND have VMI go 0-3 to get the final bye, unlikely given they play Wofford, ETSU, and Western Carolina to end the year. May as well check them off the radar.
UNCG and Furman are also 4-10. The same criterion would apply to them as it did The Citadel to overtake the Keydets for the sixth spot. The Paladins also play Western Carolina and Wofford to end the year, and the Spartans have the Terriers on the road and Chattanooga on Senior Day. This is really a race between VMI and Samford.
Below I will go every each of the possible scenarios that the Keydets could finish, and show what must happen for us to not only get the bye but possibly obtain the third or fourth seed.
Scenario #1: Finish 2-1, beat WCU & Samford
- This one seems the most plausible. Here we finish 8-10 in the SoCon, and a win over Samford would clinch 6th place. Additionally, WCU (8-7) and ETSU (8-7) must lose their final three games for us to have a shot at 5th or 4th. The tiebreaker would then go to the record between the tied clubs if all three were tied. VMI would be 2-2, ETSU 3-1, WCU 1-3. Advantage Bucs, but Keydets get fifth. If only one of the teams finishes 8-10, the tiebreaker goes to the record against the top seed (given we split), and so on if a tie persists. WCU wins that one by splitting Chattanooga, and ETSU wins it by beating Mercer. We would need a three-way tie for a higher seed.
Scenario #2: Finish 2-1, beat WCU & Chattanooga
- A bit scarier because we lose to Samford, who could tie if they win their other two games. If this works out, Samford (who would have beaten Mercer) gets the tiebreaker because we were swept by the Bears. A win over WCU ensures the exact same scenariors in Scenario #1 must occur to obtain fifth or fourth place.
Scenario #3: Finish 2-1, beat Chattanooga & Samford
- First, this eliminates any possibility that we overtake the fifth seed from the 'Cats, but we could snatch it from ETSU by going 1-1 against the Mocs, whereas they would be 0-2 with a loss Saturday. And of course our sweep over Samford clinches sixth place.
Scenario #4: Finish 1-2, beat Western Carolina OR Chattanooga
- From this point on we cannot reach WCU or ETSU with a 7-11 record or worse. Samford would have a much easier route to the sixth seed, needing to go 1-1 in the other two games, which would give them an identical 7-11 mark in league play (they play UNCG and Mercer). A win over Mercer gives them the tiebreaker. A win over UNCG doesn't, but their sweep of WCU does. The Bulldogs win out in this scenario, so we need them to lose 2 of 3.
- By finishing 7-11, any of the other bottom three teams (El Cid, UNCG, and Furman) could tie or overtake us. UNCG and Furman do play each other, so that will take one out of the equation. El Cid also plays Furman, which may take out another, given that each squad must finish 4-0 to surpass us, and only one can do so. A 7-11 finish is open to numerous possibilities.
Scenario #5: Finish 1-2, beat Samford
- By beating Samford, we win the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) and thus clinch the sixth seed regardless.
- And yet again, any of the other bottom three teams can equal or surpass us.
Scenario #6: Finish 0-3
- Captain Obvious says we don't want this to happen. An 0-3 finish would put us at 6-12 in the league, and Samford (having hypothetically beaten us) needs only to win one game to get sixth. Plus, UNCG can pass us by finishing 2-2 or better, thanks to their season sweep (the Spartans play Furman and Samford at home - certainly possible.
- Both Furman and El Cid must finish at least 3-1 to get a better seed.
So there it is. Certainly any seed is open, although for us, doing better than sixth is a pipe dream to say the least. All we need is that first-round bye, so we should be satisfied with 6th place.
Some Notes & Observances
- I figured Wofford's at-large chances were done after their loss to Chattanooga last week, but their RPI of 46 still bodes very well for the Terriers. Right now, Wofford is projected as 12-seed according to CBSSports.com, set to play UNC. Certainly they need to finish the regular season undefeated, and if they are going to lose in the tournament, it needs to be in the title game, preferably to a top-tier squad, namely UTC (RPI 135) or Mercer (RPI 224). This would put them at 27-7, presumably still a top-60 RPI. The big killer is their 128 SOS (Strength of Schedule), which sets them back among the mid-major powers and Power Five teams. They have three quality wins, and two elite wins: NC State, Iona, and Sam Houston State, the latter I consider just quality, given their 96 RPI. But I doubt that's enough to impress the Power Five-biased selection committee.
- Chuck Driesell should be working his last go-round with The Citadel, given that he is in his final year of his current contract, and that the school chose not to renew his contract either before the season or during it, a pretty clear signal that they want out. It's disappointing for the Dogs, who seem to have some potential in his Princeton offense but have struggled to beat the press all year long. Wes Miller of UNCG may not be too far behind.
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