Duggar Leaving?

There's been some murmur lately online that The Citadel may be looking to hire Duggar, according to Jeff Hartsell of the Charleston Post & Courier. I initially speculated that the idea of Duggar leaving was just a baseless internet rumor, but new reports do have some substance to them. He will in fact be interviewing with Citadel AD Jim Senter "soon", but no additional details from either Senter, Dave Diles, or Baucom himself were given. This comes as no surprise.

Of course, the Bulldogs are looking to replace the recently fired Chuck Driesell, who had a distasteful 42–113 record at El Cid in five seasons, including 22–66 (.250) in conference play. Four of those five seasons featured 20+ losses, and Driesell never won more than six conference games in any given year. Of course, you can't fault him entirely - he came in with absolutely zero DI college coaching experience, and didn't quite know what he was doing the first two or three years. After that, they picked it up a bit and I thought this season (11–19, 6–12 SoCon) was the best the 'Dogs had ever been under Driesell. But it wasn't enough, and with an expiring contract Senter had no choice but to part ways.

Could Duggar really leave Lexington to take this job? Apparently he likes the Charleston SC area, but you'd have to question why he would give up everything he has at VMI to go rebuild some 400 miles away at a school that really isn't going anywhere in basketball. And the playing styles of the two schools could not be more different - the Keydets have been running up and down the court and jacking up three's for the better part of nine years, six of which have resulted in leading the nation in scoring (although 3 of the last 4 seasons we have failed to do so, mainly due to the lack of quality shooters).

At The Citadel, it's a different story. The Bulldogs basically run a Princeton offense (though not very well, clearly), predicated on pick and rolls, setting screens, backdoor cuts, and working the clock to find the right shot. You can sell that methodical style at Kentucky or Virginia - not so much at military school.

Citadel's defense, too was awful. Among 351 Division I schools, they ranked dead last in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. VMI, by comparison, was 261st in that category - not good by any stretch, but not nearly as awful as everyone makes it out to be. The only reason we gave up so many points is because we played so fast, averaging 77.1 possessions per 40 minutes, tops in the country. All told, The Citadel simply does not have the athletes to compete with other teams.

And then there are recruiting advantages for basketball in Virginia compared to South Carolina. The only SC schools with an RPI in the top 100 this season were Wofford and Clemson. But in the Commonwealth, there was UVA, VCU, Richmond, Old Dominion, and William & Mary. Among ESPN Top 100 Recruits, four come from Virginia; only two hail from South Carolina. Football is the big deal down there, and you can see why El Cid has never made the Big Dance in sixty-eight years and probably won't for a long, long time.

So would Citadel be any better with Duggar, and should Bulldog fans want him? I'd say yes to both. If you compare his record against those coaches of all other Division I military schools, it's no contest. Duggar is far and away the most successful.

Duggar Baucom
Record at VMI: 151–159 (.487), 10 seasons
Winning seasons: 4
Conference reg. season/tourney titles: 0
Postseason appearances: 1

Chuck Driesell
Record at Citadel: 42–113 (.271), 5 seasons
Winning seasons: 0
Conference reg. season/tourney titles: 0
Postseason appearances: 0

Zach Spiker
Record at Army: 83–98 (.459), 6 seasons
Winning seasons: 1
Conference reg. season/tourney titles: 0
Postseason appearances: 0

Ed DeChellis
Record at Navy: 33–89 (.270), 4 seasons
Winning seasons: 0
Conference reg. season/tourney titles: 0
Postseason appearances: 0

Dave Pilipovich
Record at Air Force: 46–55 (.455), 3+ seasons
Winning seasons: 1
Conference reg. season/tourney titles: 0
Postseason appearances: 1

So given all this, why on earth would Duggar decide to leave Lex?

Well, because money talks.

Baucom currently makes a base salary of around $134k. Diles, who extended his contract last July through the 2018–19 season, did not, for whatever reason, give him a pay raise. Driesell, on the other hand, made $189k per year, a solid 41% more than Duggar. Was Driesell massively overpaid, or Duggar severely underpaid? Probably a little bit of both. Needless to say, I doubt VMI is willing to buy out Duggar's contract.

Other potential candidates for The Citadel include Doug Novak, a former Citadel assistant currently and current head coach at Bethel University, Patrick Beilein, a Utah Jazz assistant, and Earl Grant (College of Charleston HC) has had his name thrown around a couple times. It looks like Duggar is the front runner, and if he says no, I think they'll go with Novak.

As of right now, I'd give Duggar's chances of leaving around 20%. Remember, he was interested for the same job back in 2010 (after that disastrous season), but turned it down. He's still got four years left on his current deal and I think he loves VMI. But the man deserves a bigger paycheck and if we don't give it to him in the foreseeable future, it shouldn't surprise anyone if Duggar decides to bolt.